🗞️ Speculation dominates as ETH futures volumes run 7 times higher than spot
The current situation remains difficult to interpret, which is generally not a good sign for markets.
Uncertainty, both geopolitical and economic, is pushing a large share of investors to remain cautious.
However, this observation does not seem to apply to the most speculative participants.
📈 At the moment, we can see that derivatives markets on Ethereum remain highly active.
Open interest now stands at 6.4 million ETH, a level not far from the previous all-time high of 7.8 million ETH reached in July 2025.
—> After falling to 5 million ETH in October, open interest has gradually recovered.
A significant share of this activity comes from Binance, which alone accounts for 2.3 million ETH in open interest, representing roughly 36% dominance in the ETH derivatives market.
Another striking element is the dominance of futures markets over the spot market.
—> The spot-to-futures volume ratio on Binance has now dropped to 0.13, the lowest annual level ever recorded for ETH.
💡 In practical terms, this means that futures volumes are now about seven times larger than spot volumes.
In other words, for every $1 traded on the spot market, roughly $7 flows through futures contracts.
This dynamic suggests that speculation is currently driving price movements on Ethereum.
The extensive use of leverage does not provide a strong structural foundation and can amplify volatility through position adjustments or liquidation events.
